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No notes for slide. Publishing as Prentice Hall. The rate of growth was higher during the decade beginning in than during the previous two decades, but it is probably unrealistic to expect productivity to continue to grow at such a fast pace.
There are problems with the statistics, but the consensus is that growth in China has been high. More flexible labor market institutions may lead to lower unemployment, but there are questions about how precisely to restructure these institutions. The United Kingdom has restructured its labor market institutions to resemble more closely U. On the other hand, Denmark and the Netherlands have relatively low unemployment rates while maintaining relatively generous social insurance programs for workers.
In addition, some economists argue that tight monetary policy has at least something to do with the high unemployment rates in Europe. Although the Euro will remove obstacles to free trade between European countries, each country will be forced to give up its own monetary policy.
Dig Deeper 3. The Chinese government has encouraged foreign firms to produce in China. Since foreign firms are typically more productive than Chinese firms, the presence of foreign firms has lead to an increase in Chinese productivity.
The Chinese government has also encouraged joint ventures between foreign and Chinese firms. These joint ventures allow Chinese firms to learn from more productive foreign firms. The recent increase in U. The United States is a technological leader. Much of U. China is involved in technological catch-up. Much of Chinese productivity growth is related to adopting existing technologies developed abroad. High investment seems a good strategy for countries with little capital, and encouraging foreign firms to produce and participate in joint ventures at home seems a good strategy for countries trying to improve productivity.
Take output per worker as a measure of the standard of living. Labor productivity growth fluctuates a lot from year to year. The last few years may represent good luck. It is too soon to tell whether there has been a change in the trend observed since At current growth rates, Chinese output will exceed U. Explore Further 6. As of February , there had been 6 recessions according to the traditional definition since , but 8 recessions according the NBER recession dating.
Seasonally-adjusted annual percentage growth rates of GDP in chained dollars are given below. Real growth rates are as follows. Real GDP per person increased by a factor of 4. The level of the CPI means nothing. The rate of change of the CPI is one measure of inflation. Which index is better depends on what we are trying to measure—inflation faced by consumers or by the economy as a whole.
The underground economy is large, but by far the majority of the measured unemployed in Spain are not employed in the underground economy.
No change. This transaction is a download of intermediate goods. The jet was already counted when it was produced, i. Real GDP has increased by The answers measure real GDP growth in different units. Neither answer is incorrect, just as measurement in inches is not more or less correct than measurement in centimeters. Analogous to 4d. Yes, see appendix for further discussion.
Dig Deeper 7. The quality of a routine checkup improves over time. Checkups now may include EKGs, for example. Medical services are particularly affected by this problem since there are continual improvements in medical technology. You need to know the relative value of pregnancy checkups with and without ultra- sounds in the year the new method is introduced.
Strictly, this involves mixing the final goods and income approaches to GDP. If you choose to work, the economy produces the value of your work plus a takeout meal. If you choose not to work, presumably the economy produces a home-cooked meal. The extra output arising from your choice to work is the value of your work plus any difference in value between takeout and home-cooked meals. In fact, however, the value of home-cooked meals is not counted in GDP.
Of course, there are other details. For example, the value of groceries used to produce home-cooked meals would be counted in GDP. Putting such details aside, however, the basic point is clear. Explore Further 9. Quarters III, I, and III had negative growth. The unemployment rate increased after , peaked in , and then began to fall.
The participation rate fell steadily over the period—from Presumably, workers unable to find jobs became discouraged and left the labor force. Employment growth slowed after Employment actually fell in The employment-to-population ratio fell between and It took several years after the recession for the labor market to recover.
The propensity to consume must be less than one for our model to make sense. The increase in equilibrium output is one times the multiplier. Equilibrium output is Total demand equals production. We used this equilibrium condition to solve for output. So, equilibrium output is now Again, total demand equals production.
National saving equals private plus public saving, or National saving equals investment. This statement is mathematically equivalent to the equilibrium condition, total demand equals production. In other words, there is an alternative and equivalent equilibrium condition: Dig Deeper 4. The answers differ because spending affects demand directly, but taxes affect demand indirectly through consumption, and the propensity to consume is less than one.
Balanced budget changes in G and T are not macroeconomically neutral. The propensity to consume has no effect because the balanced budget tax increase aborts the multiplier process. Y and T both increase by one unit, so disposable income, and hence consumption, do not change.
After a positive change in autonomous spending, the increase in total taxes because of the increase in income tends to lessen the increase in output. After a negative change in autonomous spending, the fall in total taxes tends to lessen the decrease in output. Because of the automatic effect of taxes on the economy, the economy responds less to changes in autonomous spending than in the case where taxes are independent of income. Since output tends to vary less to be more stable , fiscal policy is called an automatic stabilizer.
Both Y and T decrease. If G is cut, Y decreases even more. A balanced budget requirement amplifies the effect of the decline in c0. Therefore, such a requirement is destabilizing. In the diagram representing goods market equilibrium, the ZZ line shifts up. Output increases. There is no effect on the diagram or on output. The ZZ line shifts up and output increases. Effectively, the income transfer increases the propensity to consume for the economy as a whole.
The propensity to consume is likely to be higher for low-income taxpayers. Therefore, tax cuts will be more effective at stimulating output if they are directed toward low- income taxpayers. Including the b1Y term in the investment equation increases the multiplier. Increases in autonomous spending now create a multiplier effect through two channels: Output increases by b0 times the multiplier. Investment increases by the change in b0 plus b1 times the change in output. The change in business confidence leads to an increase in output, which induces an additional increase in investment.
Since investment increases, and saving equals investment, saving must also increase. The increase in output leads to an increase in saving. Output will fall. Since output falls, investment will also fall. Public saving will not change. Private saving will fall, since investment falls, and investment equals saving.
Since output and consumer confidence fall, consumption will also fall. Output, investment, and private saving would have risen. Clearly this logic is faulty. When output is low, what is needed is an attempt by consumers to spend more. This will lead to an increase in output, and therefore—somewhat paradoxically—to an increase in private saving.
Note, however, that with a linear consumption function, the private saving rate private saving divided by output will fall when c0 rises. Answers will vary depending on when students visit the website. Money demand describes the portfolio decision to hold wealth in the form of money rather than in the form of bonds. The interest rate on bonds is relevant to this decision. Money demand decreases when the interest rate increases because bonds, which pay interest, become more attractive.
This effect is independent of the interest rate. When the bond price rises, the interest rate falls. An increase in wealth increases bond demand, but has no effect on money demand, which depends on income a proxy for transactions demand.
An increase in income increases money demand, but decreases bond demand, since we implicitly hold wealth constant. Thus, they increase their demand for money and decrease their demand for bonds.
Essentially, the reduction in the price of the bond makes it more attractive. A bond promises fixed nominal payments. The opportunity to receive these fixed payments at a lower price makes a bond more attractive. Based on these answers, ATMs and credit cards have reduced money demand. All money is in checking accounts, so demand for central bank money equals demand for reserves. When c increases, as in the Great Depression, the money multiplier falls.
Explore Further Answers will vary depending on when students visit the FOMC website. The balanced budget multiplier is positive it equals one , so the IS curve shifts right.
An increase in government spending leads to an increase in output which tends to increase investment , but also to an increase in the interest rate which tends to reduce investment. Since the multiplier is larger than the multiplier in part a , the effect of a change in autonomous spending is bigger than in part a. An increase in autonomous spending now leads to an increase in investment as well as consumption. The multiplier as measured in part c measures the marginal effect of an increase in autonomous spending on equilibrium output.
As such, the multiplier is the sum of two effects: The direct effect is equivalent to the horizontal shift of the IS curve. The indirect effect depends on the slope of the LM curve since the equilibrium moves along the LM curve in response to a shift of the IS curve and the effect of the interest rate on investment demand.
As this sum increases, the multiplier gets larger. Note that the slope of the LM curve becomes larger as money demand becomes more sensitive to income i. The IS curve shifts left. Output and the interest rate fall. The effect on investment is ambiguous because the output and interest rate effects work in opposite directions: To obtain the equilibrium interest rate, substitute for equilibrium Y from part b.
A fall in G leads to a fall in output which tends to reduce investment and to a fall in the interest rate which tends to increase investment. Note that the interest rate is the product of two factors: A monetary expansion reduces the interest rate and increases output. Consumption increases because output increases.
Investment increases because output increases and the interest rate decreases. A fiscal expansion increases output and the interest rate. Investment is affected in two ways: In this example, these two effects exactly offset one another, and investment does not change. Dig Deeper 5. Firms deciding how to use their own funds will compare the return on bonds to the return on investment. When the interest rate on bonds increases, bonds become more attractive, and firms are more likely to use their funds to download bonds, rather than to finance investment projects.
If the interest rate were negative, people would hold only money, and not bonds. Money would be a better store of value than bonds. See hint. The increase in the money supply has little effect on the interest rate.
If the interest rate is actually zero, than the increase in the money supply literally has no effect. If there is no effect on the interest rate, which affects investment, monetary policy cannot affect output. The reduction in T shifts the IS curve to the right. The increase in M shifts the LM curve down. The Clinton-Greenspan policy mix was loosely contractionary fiscal policy IS left and expansionary monetary policy LM down.
In , there was a recession, which was triggered by a fall in investment spending following the decline in the stock market. The events of September 11, which came after the recession had begun, had only a limited effect.
In fact, the economy had positive growth in the fourth quarter of The expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tended to weaken the recession, but the policies came too late to avoid a recession. The interest rate falls.
Investment increases, since the interest rate falls while output remains constant. Consumption falls.
The change in investment is ambiguous: The change in private saving equals the change in investment. So, private saving could rise or fall in response to a fall in consumer confidence. The fall in G and the increase in T shift the IS curve to the left.
The interest rate falls, and investment increases. Receipts rose, outlays fell, and the budget deficit fell. Subsequent changes in federal funds rate over the period are given below. In real terms, investment was Over the period , the average annual growth rate of GDP per person was 2. Growth was negative in Investment had a bigger percentage change, and unlike consumption, growth in investment was negative for every quarter in and , except Overall investment was generally more variable than nonresidential fixed investment in and Moreover, nonresidential fixed investment had positive growth during , but negative growth in Investment had a substantially larger decline in its contribution to growth in and The proximate cause of the recession of was a fall in investment demand.
Investment fell in the last two quarters of , but began growing again in the first quarter of Consumption growth was slow for the first three quarters of , but grew rapidly in the fourth quarter.
As mentioned in the text, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate several times during the fourth quarter of Moreover, automobile manufacturers offered large discounts. These actions may have helped to generate strong consumer spending.
In any event, it is clear that the events of September 11 did not cause the recession of The recession had started well before these events.
The participation rate has increased over time. Wage setting: The increase in the markup lowers the real wage. Algebraically, from the wage-setting equation, the unemployment rate must rise for the real wage to fall. So the natural rate increases. Intuitively, an increase in the markup implies more market power for firms, and therefore less production, since firms will use their market power to increase the price of goods by reducing supply.
Less production implies less demand for labor, so the natural rate rises. Answers will vary. Most likely, the difference between your actual wage and your reservation wage will be higher for the job you will have ten years later. The later job is more likely to require training, which means you will be costly to replace, and will probably be a much harder job to monitor, which means you may need an incentive to work hard.
Efficiency wage theory suggests that your employer will be willing to pay a lot more than your reservation wage for the later job, to make the job valuable to you, so you will stay at it and work hard. The computer network administrator has more bargaining power. She is much harder to replace. The rate of unemployment is the most important indicator of labor market conditions. When the rate of unemployment increases, it becomes easier for firms to find replacements, and worker bargaining power falls.
In our model, the real wage is always given by the price-setting relation: Since the price-setting relation depends on the actual price level and not the expected one, this relation holds in the short run and the medium run of our model. When the unemployment rate is very low, it is very difficult for firms to find workers to hire and very easy for workers to find jobs. As a result, the bargaining power of workers is very high when the unemployment rate is very low.
Therefore, the wage gets very high as the unemployment rate gets very low. Presumably, the real wage would grow without bound as the unemployment rate approached zero.
Since a worker could always find a job, there would be nothing to constrain aggressive wage bargaining. At any positive rate of unemployment, however, there is some constraint on worker bargaining power. The measured labor force and participation rate rise.
Measured employment rises. Measured unemployment does not change, but the measured unemployment rate falls. Measured GDP rises. To adjust the labor market statistics, you would have to estimate the number of workers informally employed at home and add them to the measured employed.
To the extent that workers employed informally at home were measured as unemployed, you would have to reduce measured unemployment accordingly.
To the extent that workers employed informally at home were considered out of the labor force, counting these workers as employed would increase the size of the labor force. To adjust the GDP statistics, you would have to estimate the value-added of final goods produced at home. You could make comparisons to similar goods produced outside the home or make comparisons to workers involved in similar industries outside the home, estimate the relevant wage and hours worked, and calculate value-added as the cost of labor, as is done for government services.
In either case, you need to calculate value- added, since intermediate goods—groceries, cleaning supplies, child care supplies, and so on—involved in the production of at-home goods are already counted in GDP as final goods in the formal sector. Explore Further 8. The long-term unemployed exit unemployment less frequently than the average unemployed worker.
Answers will depend on when the page is accessed. The decline in unemployment does not equal the increase in employment, because the labor force is not constant. Note that Pe must be known to graph the AS curve. There are changes in autonomous expenditure and supply shocks, both of which cause output to deviate from the natural level in the short run. Fiscal policy affects the interest rate in the medium run and therefore affects investment. The natural level of output changes in response to a permanent supply shock other than a change in Pe.
The price level changes in the medium run in response to either a demand or a supply shock. IS shifts right, and LM shifts up. AD shifts right, and AS shifts up. Y returns to its unchanged natural level. The interest rate and the price level increase. Money is neutral in the sense that the nominal money supply has no effect on output or the interest rate in the medium run. Output returns to its natural level.
The interest rate is determined by the position of the IS curve and the natural level of output. Therefore, expansionary monetary policy can be used to speed up the economy's return to the natural level of output when output is low. In the medium run, fiscal policy affects the interest rate and investment, so fiscal policy is not considered neutral.
Labor market policies, such as the degree of unemployment insurance, can affect the natural level of output. In the medium run, consumption must lower than its original level because disposable income is unchanged, but consumer confidence is lower. The short-run change in investment is ambiguous, because the interest rate falls, which tends to increase investment, but output also falls, which tends to reduce investment.
In the medium run, investment must rise as compared to its short-run and original levels , because the interest rate falls but output returns to its original level. Since the budget deficit does not change in this problem, the change in private saving equals the change in investment.
It is possible that private saving will fall in the short run, but private saving must rise above its short-run and original levels in the medium run. Open answer. Firms may be so pessimistic about sales that they do not want to borrow at any interest rate. The IS curve is vertical; the interest rate does not affect equilibrium output.
The LM curve is unaffected. The AD curve is vertical; the price level does not affect equilibrium output. The increase in z reduces the natural level of output and shifts the AS curve up.
Since the AD curve is vertical, equilibrium output does not change, but the price level increases. Note that output is above its natural level. Therefore, Pe rises and the AS curve shifts up. In fact, the AS curve shifts up forever, and the price level increases forever.
Output does not change; it remains above its natural level forever. The IS slopes down as before. Eventually, when P falls far enough, the nominal interest reaches zero. For levels of P below this threshold, the AD curve is vertical.
There is no effect on output in the short run or the medium run. Since the money supply does not affect the interest rate, it does not affect output. The AD curve shifts left in the short run. Output and the price level fall in the short run. In the medium run, the expected price level falls, and AS shifts right, returning the economy to the original natural level of output, but at a lower price level.
The unemployment rate rises in the short run, but returns to its original level the natural rate, which is unchanged in the medium run. The Fed should increase the money supply, which shifts the AD curve right.
A monetary expansion of the proper size exactly offsets the effect of the decline in business confidence on the AD curve. The net effect is that the AD curve does not move in the short run or medium run, and neither does the AS curve.
Under the policy option in part c , output and the price level are higher in the short run. In the medium run, output is the same in parts a and c , but the price level is higher in part c.
The unemployment rate is lower in the short run in part c. In the medium run, the unemployment rate is the same in parts b and c. The AS curve shifts up in the short run and shifts up further in the medium run. Output falls in the short run and falls further in the medium run. The price level rises in the short run and rises further in the medium run. The unemployment rate rises in the short run and rises further in the medium run.
The Fed could increase the money supply in the short run and shift the AD curve to the right. The AS curve would shift up over time. Output and the price level are higher in the short run in part c. Output is the same in the medium run in parts a and c , but the price level is higher in part c.
The unemployment rate in the short run is lower in part c , but the same in the medium run in parts a and c. It has to distinguish changes in the actual rate of unemployment from changes in the natural rate of unemployment. The Fed can use monetary policy to keep the unemployment rate near the natural rate, but it cannot affect the natural rate. The real wage falls immediately to its new medium-run level. The unemployment rate falls in the short run but returns to the original natural rate in the medium run.
The real wage is unaffected, but after-tax income rises. In our model, the real wage depends only on the markup. A fall in the markup increases the real wage. Policy measures that improve product market competition—for example, more vigorous anti-trust enforcement—could increase the real wage. The fall in income taxes tended to increase the after-tax real wage. The increase in oil prices tended to reduce the after-tax real wage. Intuitively, the immediate effect of an oil price increase is to reduce the real wage by increasing gas prices.
Thus, the increase in gas prices tends to absorb the extra after-tax income provided by the tax cut. The AS curve slopes up in Y-P space.
An increase in x implies that F must fall to maintain the equality. F falls when u rises. So, an increase in the relative price of energy resources leads to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment.
The unemployment rate and the price level rise in the short run and rise further in the medium run. An increase in the relative price of energy resources causes the AS curve to shift up in the short run. If Pe remains constant, the AS curve will not shift further after the initial, short- run shift. In order for Pe to remain constant, wage setters must be expecting the Fed to reduce the money supply, thereby shifting the AD curve left. This monetary policy moves output to its new, lower natural level right away, and maintains the original price level, so there will be no price adjustment in the transition to the new medium-run equilibrium.
IV — IV The 70s, 80s, and 90s look remarkably similar. The 60s had by far the highest growth. Clearly, the first decade of the 21st century will have the lowest growth. Note, although the problem did not ask for the growth rates of GDP per person, the ranking of the decades would be similar.
The growth rates of GDP per person are given below. In the s, we experienced high inflation and high unemployment. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve is a relationship between inflation and unemployment conditional on the natural rate and inflation expectations. Given inflation expectations, when the natural rate of unemployment increases i. In addition, increases in inflation expectations imply higher inflation for any level of unemployment.
In the s, both the natural rate and expected inflation increased, so both unemployment and inflation were relatively high. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve implies that maintaining a rate of unemployment below the natural rate requires not merely high inflation but increasing inflation. This is because inflation expectations continue to adjust to actual inflation.
Inflation expectations will be forever wrong. This is unlikely. Inflation increases by four percentage points every year. Inflation expectations will again be forever wrong. A higher cost of production means a higher markup of the price level over wages. In the simple model of the text, the markup reflects all nonwage components of the price of a good.
As indexation increases, inflation becomes more sensitive to the difference between the unemployment rate and the natural rate. The average rate of unemployment was lower in the s. Indeed, even though the unemployment rate was at a historical low, inflation rose very little. The natural rate of unemployment probably decreased. The relationships imply a lower natural rate in the more recent period. The unemployment rate rises when output growth is less than the normal rate and falls when output growth is greater than the normal rate.
The Phillips curve relates the change in inflation to the difference between the unemployment rate and the natural rate. The aggregate demand relation equates inflation to real money growth. It is true that the aggregate demand relation implies that inflation equals adjusted money growth, which is the difference between money growth and output, but this is only a relation between inflation and output growth conditional on money growth.
In the medium run, inflation equals adjusted money growth, which is the difference between nominal money growth and output growth. In principle, the statement is true, but nominal rigidities may make even fully credible policy costly.
Absent output growth, productivity growth tends to increase the unemployment rate, since fewer workers are required to produce a given quantity of goods. Absent output growth, labor force growth also tends to increase the unemployment rate, since more workers are competing for the same number of jobs.
Therefore, unemployment will increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth.
For the unemployment rate to decrease by 0. Assume the economy has been at the natural rate of unemployment for two years this year and last year. See text for full answer.
Gradualism reduces the need for large policy swings, with effects that are difficult to predict, but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid, favorable changes in inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the staggering of wage decisions suggests that a gradual disinflation—as long as it is credible—is the option consistent with no change in the unemployment rate. The answer is not clear. Based in Ball's evidence, a fast disinflation probably results in a lower sacrifice ratio, depending on the features listed in part c.
Relevant features include the degree of indexation, the nature of the wage-setting process, and the initial rate of inflation. Inflation will start increasing.
It should let unemployment increase to its new, higher, natural rate. Dig Deeper 6. Take measures to enhance credibility. Inflation does not decline smoothly.
In the early years, the large unemployment rates relative to the natural rate reduce inflation to negative values. In this example, money growth equals the normal growth rate of output, so negative inflation drives real money growth and hence output growth above the normal output growth rate, and unemployment falls. Eventually, when unemployment falls below the natural rate, inflation begins to increase again.
These cycles continue, with decreasing amplitude. The unemployment rate increased from 5. Therefore, growth was too low to prevent the unemployment rate from rising. Employment fell. Productivity grew. The levels of employment and unemployment can both rise if the participation rate increases. The table should read as follows. From the U. Mexican standard of living relative to the United States Exchange rate method: Y doubles. Output less than doubles. In part f , we are essentially looking at what happens to output when we increase capital only, not capital and labor in equal proportion.
There are decreasing returns to capital. Since capital is growing faster than output, the saving rate will have to increase to maintain the same pace. Eventually, the required saving will exceed output. Capital must grow faster than output because there are decreasing returns to capital in the production function.
Even though the United States was making the most important technical advances, the other countries were growing faster because they were importing technologies previously developed in the United States.
In other words, they were reducing their technological gap with the United States. Japan tended to converge to the United States in the earlier period, but not in the recent periods. Had Japan and the United States maintained their growth rates from the earlier period, Japan would have surpassed the United States in output per person some time ago.